The solution predicts risk to better manage reserves
N-SIDE, the Belgian scale-up specialized in applied mathematics and software technologies to accelerate the energy transition, announces that it is collaborating with the Nordic Transmission Systems Operators (TSOs). N-SIDE will provide a forecasting algorithm to predict the risk of imbalance in electricity production, consumption, and cross-border flows. N-SIDE is currently developing a proof-of-concept to forecast the imbalance risk in the Nordic power system.
The Nordic region is a leader in zero emissions electricity production, with Denmark having the highest share of renewable energy production in Europe. The transition to renewable sources, such as wind and solar energy, is crucial but also implies intermittent production. The new paradigm entails higher volatility and uncertainties for operations, such as estimating the level of reserves required in the system for the next day. The reserves, which need to be available in case of mismatches between the expected production, consumption, and cross-border flows, may come from other power plants (such as hydro or fossil fuels) or resources from neighboring countries available via interconnectors. Interconnections allow collaboration and exchange of surplus capacity in one country to handle shortages in other countries, thus minimizing the risk of power outages throughout the region.
The solution that N-SIDE is developing can support the Nordic TSOs to anticipate riskier periods, allowing them to procure balancing reserves at the right time and the right volume. N-SIDE’s forecasting algorithm will allow the Nordic TSOs to decrease the balancing reserves during low-risk periods with favorable weather conditions and increase the volume of reserves at critical periods. As a result, energy resources will be less scarce, which has a positive impact on the price evolution and ultimately on the energy cost for the end consumer while maintaining the security of supply.
"Predictive algorithms using machine learning allow us to better estimate production and consumption mismatches. Based on the latest data available, Nordic TSOs can adapt their capacity procurement behavior more efficiently. Moreover, it gives them confidence to integrate an even larger share of renewable energy in the energy mix"